· On the basis of the second set of satellite images of sugarcane crop acreage across the country, obtained by ISMA during the beginning of September 2015, ISMA has calculated its first advance estimates of sugar production during 2015-16 sugar season based on estimates of sugarcane acreage, yields, recovery and cane drawal. In July 2015, ISMA had released its preliminary estimates of sugar production during 2015-16 SS, based on the first survey of satellite mapping.
· On the basis of the September 2015 satellite images, ISMA has estimated the total cane acreage at 52.84 lakh hectares, which is just 0.4 per cent less than 2014-15 SS.
· The total estimated cane acreage in Maharashtra is about 10.50 lakh hectares, which is almost at the same level as that of last year. Due to less rainfall in July and August, which are said to be important months in the growth of the cane crop, it is estimated that the yield per ha. may go down. However, it is also important to note that with better rainfall in September, there may be some revival in the situation. Therefore, ISMA has revised its earlier estimate of sugar production in Maharashtra for 2015-16 SS from 97 lac tons to 90 lac tons. This will be 14.3% less than actual sugar production in Maharashtra of 105.05 lac tons in 2014-15 SS.
· As per estimates made by ISMA, area under sugarcane in U.P. is estimated to be about 23.02 lac ton, about similar to that in 2014-15 SS when it was 23.07 lac ha. During the current year, there was no heavy rainfall or flooding in the State like previous years and as such, there was no adverse impact on the crop in the State. Moreover, with improvement of cane variety in the State and large areas under better varieties, the cane yields and sugar recoveries are better. Considering these factors, it is expected that yield per ha. as well as sugar recovery % will improve in 2015-16 SS. Therefore, even with same cane acreage, estimated sugar production in U.P. is being revised by ISMA from 73.51 lac tons to 75 lac tons in 2015-16 SS. This was 71.01 lac tons during 2014-15 SS.
· During 2015-16, sugarcane acreage in Karnataka is seemed to have increased marginally. However, keeping in view the erratic monsoon in some parts of North Karnataka, yield is expected to be lower in 2015-16 SS. Therefore, it is estimated that about 46 lac tons of sugar will be produced by the mills in Karnataka, i.e., 4 lac tons lower than the sugar production in 2014-15 SS.
· The rainfall in the entire State of Tamil Nadu during pre-monsoon and South West Monsoon period has been very good. Around 2.5 lakh hectares are expected to be under sugarcane cultivation, which is similar to 2014-15 SS. Sufficient rainfall in the monsoon period is expected to help increase sugarcane yields and sugar recovery. Therefore, it is estimated that the State will produce around 13.5 lakh tons of sugar in 2015-16, which will be about 1 lac tons higher than 2014-15 SS.
· The sugar production from Gujarat is expected to be around 11.5 lakh tons whereas from Andhra Pradesh & Telangana, it is expected to be around 8.5 lakh tons, almost similar to that of last year. Sugar production in Punjab and Haryana may go down slightly due to poor monsoon and drop in sugar yields/recovery etc. The sugar production in the case of other States viz. Bihar, Uttarakhand etc. is estimated to be almost at the same level as that of last year mainly because cane acreage is almost similar.
· It may be recalled that in the preliminary estimates released by ISMA in July 2015, for the sugar season 2015-16, sugar production was estimated at 280 lakh tons. This was mainly based on almost similar cane acreage across the country and slightly lower sugar production in Maharashtra due to lower rainfall. However, considering further poor rainfall during SW monsoon in July and also during August in Maharashtra and Karnataka, ISMA has revised its estimated sugar production in 2015-16 SS to around 270 lac tons.
· In 2014-15 (till 15th September), sugar mills have produced 282.6 lac tons of sugar and it is expected that mills may produce another 0.50 lac tons in the remaining 15 days. It is estimated that about 251 lakh tons of sugar would be despatched by the mills for domestic consumption and it is expected that 11 lac tons sugar will get exported during the season, till 30th September, 2015. It is, therefore, expected that closing stock of sugar at the end of 2014-15 SS would be around 96 lac tons.