PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES OF SUGAR PROUDCTION IN 2015-16
· ISMA, based on the satellite images procured in the latter part of June 2015 has projected the total acreage in the country of around 53.58 lakh hectares in 2015-16 SS, which is almost similar to that of last 2014-15 SS (when it was 53.23 lac ha.). These are only preliminary estimates. The first advance estimates will be released in September 2015, when satellite images will better capture fully matured crop.
· Uttar Pradesh, the leading sugarcane acreage State in the country, is estimated to have an area under sugarcane of 23.14 lakh hectares, as against 23.07 lac ha. in 2014-15 SS. ISMA is anticipating a better yield in 2015-16 SS, which may increase the sugarcane production and availability for crushing by sugar mills. Thus, sugar production in U.P. is estimated to be around 73.5 lakh tons, which would be about 3.5% more than 71 lakh tons produced in 2014-15 SS.
· Similarly, Maharashtra, which hada bumper sugarcane acreage in 2014-15 SS, is likely to have a similar area this year at 10.6 lac ha. Due to poorer rainfall than for 2014-15 SS, yields may be affected in 2015-16 SS and, therefore, sugarcane production is likely to be less than previous 2014-15 SS. Maharashtra is expected to produce about 97 lakh tons of sugar, which is about 7.6 % lower than 2014-15 SS.
· Karnataka, which had historically high production of sugar at 49.6 lac tons in 2014-15 SS, is expected to have higher acreage of 5.14 lakh hectares in 2015-16 SS. Sugarcane condition and cropping pattern, gives an indication that sugar production will be about 49.8 lakh tons in 2015-16.
· Due to lesser rainfall and drop in cane area as compared to previous years, cane acreage in the State of Tamil Nadu remained at the same level of 2014-15 SS at 2.5 lac ha. However, it is expected that the yield may improve slightly in 2015-16 SS. Sugar production in Tamil Nadu is expected to be around 12.7 lac tons in 2015-16 SS.
· This preliminary estimates of sugarcane crop and sugar production on the current monsoon progress; water situation and other fundamental factors across India. ISMA will release their 1st advance estimates for 2015-16 in September, by which time the crop will be fully mature with better clarity on monsoon progression too.
· ISMA is projecting about 280 lakh tons of sugar for the season 2015-16 SS, which is about 3 lac tons less than last year. It is also estimated to have about 102 lakh tons of sugar opening balance on 1st Oct, 2015.
· It is estimated that 252 lakh tons of sugar will be consumed in next season. During this SS 2014-15 SS, till 30th June, 2015, about 280.23 lakh tons of sugar has been produced and another 2.5 lakh tons is expected to be produced in the balance period of the season.