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Media Release on Sugar Production Estimates Sugar Season 2014-15
11 Jul 2014
Press Release - Preliminary 2014-15.pdf
The satellite images of mid-June, 2014 on the sugarcane acreage across the country has been procured by ISMA and after detailed analysis, it is estimated that the total sugarcane acreage of the country in 2014-15 sugar season would be around 52.30 lakh ha, which is about 2% less than last year.
As per the satellite images, the sugarcane crop acreage in Maharashtra and Karnataka is higher, even though the acreage in Uttar Pradesh and Tamil Nadu is lower. Since Maharashtra and Karnataka, showing higher cane acreage, give better cane yields and sugar recoveries while in U.P and Tamil Nadu, it is lower, and over all it is estimated that even though the area for 2014-15 sugar season across the country is 2% lower than that in 2013-14 sugar season, the sugarcane availability and the estimated sugar production would be more than the current sugar season.
However, there are doubts on the rainfall in the western part of the country, which may have some impact on currently estimated yields and recoveries from Maharashtra and North Karnataka. It is, however, important to note here that a similar situation had arisen in 2012-13 sugar season and doubts were being raised on sugarcane and sugar production from western part of the country on lower rainfall in June – July in that area. However, ISMA was cautious and had said that the retreating monsoon, which gives rainfall in September – October, needs to be taken into consideration before drastically reducing the sugarcane and sugar production. Since the retreating monsoon that year was good, the lower rainfall of June – July, did not result in lower sugar production from these areas.
Since sugarcane crop is largely grown on irrigated area and with current water level in reservoirs being in good position, the impact of lower rainfall, if any, in June – July can be minimized.
Considering the above factors and State-wise cane acreage, as derived from mid-June 2014 satellite images, ISMA has made its
estimates of sugar production for 2014-15 sugar season (October 2014 to September 2015). As per practice followed in the previous years also, ISMA will obtain satellite images again in August – September 2014 period. By that time, there would be more clarity on monsoon progression and crop acreage. ISMA will accordingly release its first advance estimates for 2014-15 season in September 2014.
As per the images, substantiated by field reports, it is estimated that the sugarcane acreage in U.P in 2014-15, would be around 9% less than 2013-14 sugar season. Therefore, as compared to 65 lakh tons of sugar produced by U.P. sugar mills in 2013-14, it is estimated that in 2014-15, sugar production might be less than as compared to 2013-14 sugar season
The higher acreage under sugarcane being seen in Maharashtra, is estimated to be about 13% higher over last year. Additionally, with the share of 18 month crop i.e. adsali and the 15 month crop i.e. pre-seasonal, being higher than the last year, the estimated sugar production from Maharashtra could be higher as compared to 77 lakh tons produced in 2013-14 sugar season.
Karnataka, which achieved their highest ever sugar production of about 41.5 lakh tons in current 2013-14 sugar season, is showing about 5% higher sugarcane acreage for 2014-15. With higher percentage of pre-seasonal crop, mostly in Northern Karnataka, the sugar production in Karnataka is estimated to cross the current year’s historically highest production
The acreage in Tamil Nadu is seen to be lower by 7% over last years and with lower rainfall in the last several months, which might impact the recovery adversely, the sugar production may see a further fall from the current year’s production of around 14 lakh tons in 2013-14 to even less in the next season i.e. 2014-15.
However, the State of Gujarat is estimated to have more acreage under sugarcane by around 4%, The estimated sugar production might go up from current year’s 11.7 lakh tons in the next season i.e. 2014-15.
The sugar production from the other States is expected to be similar to what has been reported in the current sugar season.
Based on the acreages, estimated yields and sugar recovery, as well as drawal of sugarcane by the sugar industry and current rainfall progression and availability of water in the reservoirs, the
Indian Sugar Mills Association
(ISMA) for sugar production in 2014-15 sugar season, works out to around 253 lakh tons of sugar. This would be about 4% higher than the estimated sugar production of around 243 lakh tons in June 2013-14 sugar season.
With an estimated opening balance of sugar of around 75 lakh tons, as on 1
October, 2014 for the next sugar season and sugar production as estimated above, there will more than sufficient sugar to take care of domestic requirement, of around 245 lakh tons next year.
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